HOWEVER strong are the statements to the contrary, I still expect a mid-term election this year. It may not be in April or May as anticipated earlier, but it looks like taking place in October-November. The political situation in the country is developing in such a way that the ruling Congress may itself dissolve parliament and opt for the polls.

Once the party clinches a favourable agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and proves that the assurances given by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to parliament have been met, the Congress believes it will be on a firmer ground to take on the opposition parties.

Its plank may well be that the opposition is in the way of development which the party will link to the nuclear deal with America. There is no doubt that the deal is popular in the civil society, roughly 300 million people who constitute the consumer class and who influence opinion with the media at its command.

The Left will suspect America’s hand in any favourable outcome from the IAEA. It is not going to take an agreement with the IAEA on its face value. It would like to probe and re-discuss the gamut of the nuclear deal with the purpose of picking holes. The problem with the Left, particularly the CPI (M), is not the deal so much as is the suspicion that it will be yet another coil in the string that America is tying around India. The Left suspects New Delhi tilting towards Washington in foreign and economic affairs as the West thought during the cold war that India was pro-Soviet Union.

I expect the discussion between the Left and the government to take long. Both may knowingly extend their talks till after the budget. The Left does not want to rock the boat so long as its own credibility is not affected. And in any case it does not want the BJP to step in after the fall of the government. The danger is that many parties supporting the Congress can switch over to the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), not wanting early polls.

Since the civil society is pro-West, the sympathy factor may work in favour of the Congress. The civil society was not upset when Russia wanted to sign a pact on the installation of nuclear reactors and New Delhi changed its mind at the last minute. Russia has gone out of the radar of the civil society. Nor has it taken any notice of India not signing the gas pipeline contract with Iran. Both India and Pakistan were to sign the contract but only Pakistan has done so.

Knowing well that no issue other than the failure of the nuclear deal can revive the sagging fortunes of the Congress, the party may go over the full exercise of losing a majority in the Lok Sabha and quitting. The purpose will be to show that for the sake of “development” the Congress did not compromise and went down fighting. The more the Left and others hit at the Manmohan Singh government on the nuclear deal, the bigger will be the support of the civil society. How far this strategy helps the party will be difficult to say. But it will certainly win over the elements which are focused on the growth rate of 9 per cent. Apart from the corporate sector, the civil society constitutes a strong lobby. It has all the money to finance the costliest election that the Congress may face.

The BJP, main party in the opposition, is not oblivious to the Congress thinking. But it believes that after winning in Uttrakhand, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh in a row, the party is on the recovery path. Till a few years ago, not even the most optimists gave the party more than 100 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha. Today even the pessimists will concede it more than 100.

The BJP has nothing against America. The party feels that it overplayed its card in the opposition to the nuclear deal. Now it is stuck. In fact, the NRIs in America, the biggest source of funds for the BJP, have conveyed their dislike for the party’s stand on the deal. Therefore, it was not even mentioned at the party’s National Council conference. But if the question of nuclear deal is raised by the Congress during the elections – as it will do to placate the civil society – the BJP may argue that it is not opposed to the deal but to the restriction of sovereignty it may bring in its wake.

The CPM’s idea of a third force is a non-starter because there is hardly any party left in the field after Congress has formed the UPA and BJP the NDA. The only party the CPM has in its tow is the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav. The DMK may come along because it has no alliance to go with when its rival, AIADMK, has joined hands with the BJP.

The CPM’s old favourite Lalu Prasad Yadav from Bihar would like to stay with the Congress for the help it has rendered to him in the cases of corruption and excess assets. Telugu Desam may be on the BJP side after elections but the party chief, Chandrababu Naidu, tends to go with the winning combination. Regional and sub-regional parties will do better if they go it alone. Most of them will as was the case in the last general election.

The Congress does not expect the pendulum to swing back to its side. But it hates to slip further from the territory it occupies. It wants to cash in on the unpopularity of the BJP in Rajasthan, Mahdya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, going to the polls later in the year.

Mayawati is a big factor against the Congress. The dalits, the Harijans, once its ardent supporters, are moving rapidly towards her, a dalit who gives them a sense of identity. Their increasing preference for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which she heads, is cutting into the Congress votes. The BSP divided dalit votes in Gujarat to make the Congress lose some 12 seats. The same thing has happened in Himachal Pradesh, costing the Congress as many as six seats.

On the other hand, the Congress has to put its house in order. Party president Sonia Gandhi has cut every leader in the party down to size to stand out as the tallest. But in the process, even former chief ministers of the Congress-run states have become pigmies. By waiting till May, 2009, for elections does not give anything except the depressingly slow progress of Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi’s son. The Congress does not know how to combat communal forces. This is its minus point.